Context Slice What Are Cognitive Biases?
Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from rational judgment. They're mental shortcuts that helped our ancestors survive but can lead us astray in complex modern decisions. Everyone has them—awareness is the first step to mitigation.
Information Processing Biases
These affect how we gather and interpret information.
Confirmation Bias — Seeking, interpreting, and remembering information that confirms existing beliefs while dismissing contradictory evidence. "I knew this would fail" after ignoring early warning signs that didn't fit expectations.
Anchoring — Over-relying on the first piece of information encountered. Initial price quotes, first impressions, and early estimates disproportionately influence final judgments even when better information arrives later.
Availability Heuristic — Judging likelihood based on how easily examples come to mind. Recent, vivid, or emotionally charged events seem more common than they are. Plane crashes feel riskier than car accidents despite statistics.
Selective Perception — Filtering observations through expectations. Two people watching the same meeting can honestly report completely different events based on what they were primed to notice.
Framing Effect — Being influenced by how information is presented rather than the information itself. "90% success rate" and "10% failure rate" are logically identical but feel different.
Decision-Making Biases
These affect how we choose between options.
Sunk Cost Fallacy — Continuing something because of past investment rather than future value. "We've already spent so much on this project" shouldn't justify spending more if the project is failing.
Loss Aversion — Feeling losses more intensely than equivalent gains. Losing $100 hurts more than finding $100 feels good. This leads to risk-averse behavior when ahead and risk-seeking behavior when behind.
Status Quo Bias — Preferring the current state simply because it's current. Change requires justification; staying the same doesn't—even when change would be beneficial.
Overconfidence Bias — Overestimating one's own abilities, knowledge, or accuracy of predictions. Most people believe they're above average in most things—which is statistically impossible.
Planning Fallacy — Underestimating time, costs, and risks while overestimating benefits. Projects consistently take longer and cost more than predicted, yet we keep making optimistic forecasts.
Social Biases
These affect how we perceive and relate to others.
Fundamental Attribution Error — Attributing others' behavior to character ("they're lazy") while attributing our own to circumstances ("I was overwhelmed"). We judge ourselves by intentions, others by actions.
In-Group Bias — Favoring members of our own group. People on "our team" get benefit of the doubt; outsiders don't.
Halo Effect — Letting one positive trait influence perception of unrelated traits. Someone attractive seems more trustworthy; a good presenter seems more competent.
Bandwagon Effect — Adopting beliefs or behaviors because others have. Popularity becomes its own justification.
Authority Bias — Giving undue weight to opinions of authority figures, even outside their expertise.
Memory Biases
These affect how we remember and learn from the past.
Hindsight Bias — Believing, after the fact, that we "knew it all along." Past events seem more predictable than they were. This prevents learning from surprises.
Survivorship Bias — Focusing on successful examples while overlooking failures. "Every successful founder dropped out of college" ignores the vastly larger number of dropouts who didn't succeed.
Rosy Retrospection — Remembering past events more positively than they were experienced. "The good old days" were probably not as good as memory suggests.
Self-Serving Bias — Attributing successes to personal skill and failures to external factors. "We won because of our strategy; we lost because of bad luck."
Recognition Patterns
When analyzing for biases, look for:
- Asymmetric treatment — Is the same evidence interpreted differently depending on whether it supports or contradicts a position?
- First-thing anchoring — Is excessive weight given to initial information?
- Emotional reasoning — Are gut feelings being treated as evidence?
- Social pressure — Is the decision influenced by what others think or do?
- Sunk cost language — Are past investments being used to justify future ones?
- Certainty without evidence — Is there overconfidence in predictions or judgments?
- Selective examples — Are only successful cases being considered?
A bias doesn't mean the conclusion is wrong—it means the reasoning process may be compromised. Flag the pattern, then evaluate whether the conclusion holds up without the biased reasoning.